Turkey Rising?

Image via Wikipedia

The Turkish Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, has been quite busy of in the past month, meeting with the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan, the EU, Brazil, Serbia, Bosnia and NATO ministers, and has met with some success in getting what Turkey feels is in its interests. 

For example, after what by all accounts was a difficult dinner in Tallinn, Davutoğlu managed to win over enough NATO members, to get NATO MAP (Membership Action Plan) status for Bosnia.  Although this is part of Turkey's well know efforts to achieve reconciliation in the Balkans, an old stomping ground, it also shows that despite the brush-off and broken promises from certain EU members regarding accession, Turkey is in Europe.

As part of Turkey's Balkan reconciliation effort, Davutoğlu also met with the foreign ministers of Serbia and Spain.  Serbia, of course, is not happy about Bosnia's proposed NATO membership.  However,  Davutoğlu's meetings with Spain and Serbia are also meant to advance Serbia's integration efforts into the EU and NATO. As if that was not enough, a future meeting in Istanbul will involve a presidential summit among Turkey, Serbia and Bosnia.


Perhaps the EU needs to take another look at its tactics regarding Turkish membership and Turkey in general - because Turkey is a European power now whether they like it or not.

The riskiest venture though is Turkey's attempts, with Brazil, to negotiate some sort of fuel swap deal with Tehran.

Last week Davutoğlu met with Catherine Ashton, the EU Foreign Minister, to review his earlier talks in Tehran regarding the fuel swap negotiations. Brazil's Foreign Minister is flying to Tehran soon to continue the pursuit of a deal.  So, what happens if Turkey and Brazil do come up with a deal?  I'm very skeptical that the deal can be brokered given the current rhetoric flowing out ofTehran.  However, assuming that the talks succeed, then then sanctions would be off the table at the UN where they are scheduled to be raised in June when France chairs the Security Council. A deal would be embarrassing for the US and Tehran.  The US has been pushing hard for sanctions and Tehran has been its usual strutting self.  At the end of the day, the US can get over the embarrassment because a solution would be a vindication of its Iran policy.  Tehran not so much. Which is why I am not convinced the negotiations have any chance of success.

The fact is, Turkey and Iran are not strategic partners and both have geo-political aims for dominance in the Middle East.  Iran has a military budget the size of Finland's and is an economic mess. Turkey is a major military and economic power that just happens to anchor NATO in the east. For Tehran to agree to a fuel swap would deliver a huge diplomatic plum to Turkey, enhance its prestige and allow it to reach deep into a region in which Iran would like to compete and control.  The deal won't happen without some intense bargaining.

There is a downside risk for Turkey in its attempt to work with Iran.  Failure to broker this deal will tarnish Turkey's image as a regional leader.  It has been unable to arrive at a successful solution among Israel, Syria and the Palestinians and is already seen in the West as being just a little too supportive of Iranian ambitions. Failure to move Iran to accept a fuel swap deal acceptable to the West will put Ankara in an awkward position when sanctions come to a vote in the UN in two months time where it will likely abstain.

Aid to the Roma

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Al Jazeera published an article by Phoebe Greenwood, working for Save the Children charity, on the plight of the Roma in Montenegro. The article was published as a special report commemorating Refugee Day on June 20. (The photo is of a Roma refugee in Cesmin Lug, Kosovo, December 2007)

The description of the camp is focuses on the plight of Roma refugees from Kosovo, and not about the life of the Roma population within their respective countries in general. For example, in FYR Macedonia, the Roma community within Skopje, the capital, is similarly poor, but not quite to the extent described in Ms Greenwood's report. Many Roma families in Skopje pull their young children out of school, not because they are abused or attacked (although that is certainly the case at times), but because the way of life requires that the children help support the family on the street by peddling goods or begging. There is no desire, at least in Skopje, to join Macedonian society. Indeed, if one tours the Roma compound in Skopje, the poverty is overwhelming - except when one comes upon the local ruler's home which is quite large and expensive.

The result of the resistance to integration leads to frustration among some in the development community. During my time in Skopje, I watched as a UN team enthusiastically began working with the Roma community only to find that their efforts were not similarly enthusiastically embraced unless the local leader approved. Such approval was clearly based on "what do I get out of this?". In private, the team was critical of the Roma community leadership's failure to respond positively and constructively. They wanted to leave.

I am also not surprised at the low attendence and high drop-out rate in school. That was the pattern in Skopje. Unfortunately, I am also skeptical of the sincerity of some of the statements made by some the Roma in Podgorica. I am also curious as to the ownership of the large homes in the background of the photo featured in the article.

The truth of the matter is that the answer to question of "why is no one helping us", is that no one in the Balkans (or in Russia, Ukraine - anywhere) wants to help. Organizatons like Save the Children should be given more resources to assist communities such as this, but no one should expect local governments to help at all. Save the Children and similar charities cannot build infrastructure, houses or change the political climate to the extent required. But they can help to prevent the spread of disease, push for new regulations and enforce existing laws protecting the rights of children.

The Roma have been the target of discrimination in every country in which I have worked. Their way of life does not easily permit absorption into local society. However, the treatment of the Roma - abetted by the policies of local governments as documented in this article - needs to be changed. Telling them to "return where they came from", in this case Kosovo, would solve the problem for officials in Podgorica, but not for the refugees. They cannot stay, but they are probably equally unwelcome in Kosovo. Attitudes will need to change on both sides - and attitudenal changes require generations.