Turkey Rising?

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The Turkish Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, has been quite busy of in the past month, meeting with the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan, the EU, Brazil, Serbia, Bosnia and NATO ministers, and has met with some success in getting what Turkey feels is in its interests. 

For example, after what by all accounts was a difficult dinner in Tallinn, Davutoğlu managed to win over enough NATO members, to get NATO MAP (Membership Action Plan) status for Bosnia.  Although this is part of Turkey's well know efforts to achieve reconciliation in the Balkans, an old stomping ground, it also shows that despite the brush-off and broken promises from certain EU members regarding accession, Turkey is in Europe.

As part of Turkey's Balkan reconciliation effort, Davutoğlu also met with the foreign ministers of Serbia and Spain.  Serbia, of course, is not happy about Bosnia's proposed NATO membership.  However,  Davutoğlu's meetings with Spain and Serbia are also meant to advance Serbia's integration efforts into the EU and NATO. As if that was not enough, a future meeting in Istanbul will involve a presidential summit among Turkey, Serbia and Bosnia.


Perhaps the EU needs to take another look at its tactics regarding Turkish membership and Turkey in general - because Turkey is a European power now whether they like it or not.

The riskiest venture though is Turkey's attempts, with Brazil, to negotiate some sort of fuel swap deal with Tehran.

Last week Davutoğlu met with Catherine Ashton, the EU Foreign Minister, to review his earlier talks in Tehran regarding the fuel swap negotiations. Brazil's Foreign Minister is flying to Tehran soon to continue the pursuit of a deal.  So, what happens if Turkey and Brazil do come up with a deal?  I'm very skeptical that the deal can be brokered given the current rhetoric flowing out ofTehran.  However, assuming that the talks succeed, then then sanctions would be off the table at the UN where they are scheduled to be raised in June when France chairs the Security Council. A deal would be embarrassing for the US and Tehran.  The US has been pushing hard for sanctions and Tehran has been its usual strutting self.  At the end of the day, the US can get over the embarrassment because a solution would be a vindication of its Iran policy.  Tehran not so much. Which is why I am not convinced the negotiations have any chance of success.

The fact is, Turkey and Iran are not strategic partners and both have geo-political aims for dominance in the Middle East.  Iran has a military budget the size of Finland's and is an economic mess. Turkey is a major military and economic power that just happens to anchor NATO in the east. For Tehran to agree to a fuel swap would deliver a huge diplomatic plum to Turkey, enhance its prestige and allow it to reach deep into a region in which Iran would like to compete and control.  The deal won't happen without some intense bargaining.

There is a downside risk for Turkey in its attempt to work with Iran.  Failure to broker this deal will tarnish Turkey's image as a regional leader.  It has been unable to arrive at a successful solution among Israel, Syria and the Palestinians and is already seen in the West as being just a little too supportive of Iranian ambitions. Failure to move Iran to accept a fuel swap deal acceptable to the West will put Ankara in an awkward position when sanctions come to a vote in the UN in two months time where it will likely abstain.

Turkey and Brazil on Nuclear Issues

Perhaps this is a good idea.  Some fresh views from two rising powers might have a salutory effect.  I doubt it, with the current leaders of Iran and Israel.  But, just maybe...

No Olympics for Chicago

For some valid reasons. Oh well...get over it. Brazil did a good job selling Rio. Not the end of civilization.

Note to the right wing toons in the US - celebrating a loss for the city of Chicago as some sort of political vindication for you is, to say the least, typical of bullies and morons. Go back under your rock.

BRIC (bat)

So far, the media is treating the recent BRIC meeting in Moscow as a big event of rising powers - Brazil, Russia, India and China - joining together in a powerful new bloc.

It isn't.

The first communiqué consisted of the usual pablum of urging a greater role for developing nations in international institutions. Wow. Just Wow.

BRIC has been characterized as a potential balance against the US. How is that going to work exactly? Russia, I can understand wanting to regain its role vis a vis the US. China? They have no interest in irritating the US and neither does Brazil. India does not exactly trust China and Brazil is on the other side of the planet from everyone else.

On the BBC, an emphasis was placed on Russia's foreign currency reserves as a symbol of the potential of BRIC. Uh...well...with a budget deficit of 11 percent of GDP in April, a decline of 16.2 percent in revenues between April and May and a total deficit of $100 billion, its reserve fund is accounted for. Its Ministry of Finance recently announced that it would jump into the international bond market forexternal funding of its deficit. How's that working out so far?

BRIC will fade into the world of annual economic coordination meetings accomplishing little, if anything.