Monday, June 15, 2009
Coming to a War Near You...
Completely - almost - off topic, but has anyone seen this? "Terminator" anyone?
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Iran Election
Although I have a number of Iranian friends from my time in Central Asia and Ukraine, they are mostly "liberal" in the sense that they are opposed to the clerical rule in Iran. Indeed, they call themselves Persian. So, I have no great knowledge of the socio-political structure of the country as a whole. However, reading the reports on the election and the aftermath, particularly the arrest of over 100 opposition leaders yesterday, one can't help but conclude that the margin of victory was fraudulent, if not the election itself.
One point that appears to repeat itself is that the rural vote put Ahmadinejad over the top. The huge margin seems to make this improbable as it would require a major shift in the urban vote as well.
Juan Cole has the best analysis at this time about the election results. As the weeks pass more information will appear. In the meantime, it seems that Israel will likely take this as an opportunity to push its aggressive stance against Iran - although attacking Iran is off the table as it would require US consent. I suspect as well that US policy will remain unchanged since Ahmadinejad has been president for the past four years and will be there for the next four. That's the fact on the ground that is not going to change, so US and EU policy should remain in place.
Whether the damaged credibility of the Iranian government if the belief that the election was stolen weakens its ability to deal with the outside world, including Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, not to mention the EU and the US, will be interesting to watch. President Ahmadinejad may need to dial down his rhetoric - which would be welcome in and of itself.
One point that appears to repeat itself is that the rural vote put Ahmadinejad over the top. The huge margin seems to make this improbable as it would require a major shift in the urban vote as well.
Juan Cole has the best analysis at this time about the election results. As the weeks pass more information will appear. In the meantime, it seems that Israel will likely take this as an opportunity to push its aggressive stance against Iran - although attacking Iran is off the table as it would require US consent. I suspect as well that US policy will remain unchanged since Ahmadinejad has been president for the past four years and will be there for the next four. That's the fact on the ground that is not going to change, so US and EU policy should remain in place.
Whether the damaged credibility of the Iranian government if the belief that the election was stolen weakens its ability to deal with the outside world, including Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, not to mention the EU and the US, will be interesting to watch. President Ahmadinejad may need to dial down his rhetoric - which would be welcome in and of itself.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Belarus and Russia
I'm not quite sure what to make of this (Russian only version of Belarus Today) but it seems as if President Lukashenko is a little miffed at the Kremlin.
In the article, he rejects an apparent attempt by Moscow to try and intimidate it by withholding about $500 million Belarus had been promised over the fact that his government has not recognized as independent countries the breakaway regions of Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia). He then goes on to imply that an attempt to interfere with the independence of Belarus would result in another Chechnya.
President Lukashenko has always been somewhat strange, but this sudden burst of nationalistic fervor directed at Russia deserves watching.
In the article, he rejects an apparent attempt by Moscow to try and intimidate it by withholding about $500 million Belarus had been promised over the fact that his government has not recognized as independent countries the breakaway regions of Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia). He then goes on to imply that an attempt to interfere with the independence of Belarus would result in another Chechnya.
President Lukashenko has always been somewhat strange, but this sudden burst of nationalistic fervor directed at Russia deserves watching.
Russia, Gas and Europe
Germany and Russia have been meeting through their respective FM's supplementing previous meetings between Chancellor Merkel, Prime Minister Putin and President Medvedev, regarding Nord Stream - Russia's well-planned pipeline designed to avoid all transit countries and tie the EU, and particularly Germany, to Russia through energy dependence.
According to Kommersant (Russian only) the military in Germany doesn't like the idea much since the pipeline runs too close to a naval excersize area. This should be interesting as Chancellor Merkel maneuvers for the next election and her FM, a supporter of Nord Stream but not of the same party and a likely opponent to the Chancellor, may not be quite so supportive during his Moscow meetings.
This has provoked Gazprom into threatening to sell gas elsewhere - such as the US. Maybe, just maybe, the Germans will look twice at their eastern policy during the next election. If Gazprom feels strong enough to threaten the largest European economy, perhaps Chancellor Merkel and her supporters should think harder about the cost of closer ties with a resurgent Russia.
According to Kommersant (Russian only) the military in Germany doesn't like the idea much since the pipeline runs too close to a naval excersize area. This should be interesting as Chancellor Merkel maneuvers for the next election and her FM, a supporter of Nord Stream but not of the same party and a likely opponent to the Chancellor, may not be quite so supportive during his Moscow meetings.
This has provoked Gazprom into threatening to sell gas elsewhere - such as the US. Maybe, just maybe, the Germans will look twice at their eastern policy during the next election. If Gazprom feels strong enough to threaten the largest European economy, perhaps Chancellor Merkel and her supporters should think harder about the cost of closer ties with a resurgent Russia.
Georgia, AES and Energy Development Programs
The BBC has an interesting TV program called Storyville which covers unusual or rare reports on issues that otherwise are not covered in great detail. Today I happened to tune in to the report on electricity supply in Georgia.
In 1999 the American firm AES won the tender to purchase the electrical distribution system in Georgia. This is not the same as buying the generation capacity which is owned separately and AES needs to pay for the power supplied to it. Thus, the payments by users, billed by AES, is critical to a viable and profitable operation. There is the rub. It is demonstrably not profitable and therefore not sustainable.
Development agencies such as USAID and EU programs have always emphasised the privatization of electrical distribution systems despite the fact that there has been no evidence that privatization, even through open bidding by seemingly knowledgeable private sector companies, would result in sustainable commercial companies. Tbilisi residents never had the money to pay the bills - especially the pensioners. With incomes around $30 - $50 per month the objective was to avoid the metering system (provided free, thank you very much) which could take as much as 50% of that income. AES would cut the power for non-payers, leaving many without light or television. AES, of course, needed to pay for the electricity it received, but considering the black hole of corruption in Georgia, the money it paid to those in charge of supply would disappear into the pockets of the energy ministry or other highly placed officials.
This is only one example. Armenia attempted the same with its distribution system - it did not work. The private sector built generation and distribution system in southern Tajikistan in Khorog fulfills the definition of bankrupt. In Khorog, the director of the facility was physically threatened when power was cut to homes. (Since I dealt with the firm which was owned by my employer at the time, it will go nameless).
There is the persistent idea that privatization of energy production, distribution or both in poverty rich nations like Armenia, Georgia and Tajikistan, is the optimum solution. It has not worked and cutting off power to the poor is not an option. A different way forward for energy reform in poor countries needs to be developed. The backlash by ordinary people in Georgia against the US (AES is based in the US)because they live in darkness and can't afford the cost, does not benefit US foreign policy goals. Conversion of formally state run companies providing "free" public services, such as electricity, into for-profit firms needs a re-assessment.
Denying essential services to those who cannot afford to pay is not an option.
In 1999 the American firm AES won the tender to purchase the electrical distribution system in Georgia. This is not the same as buying the generation capacity which is owned separately and AES needs to pay for the power supplied to it. Thus, the payments by users, billed by AES, is critical to a viable and profitable operation. There is the rub. It is demonstrably not profitable and therefore not sustainable.
Development agencies such as USAID and EU programs have always emphasised the privatization of electrical distribution systems despite the fact that there has been no evidence that privatization, even through open bidding by seemingly knowledgeable private sector companies, would result in sustainable commercial companies. Tbilisi residents never had the money to pay the bills - especially the pensioners. With incomes around $30 - $50 per month the objective was to avoid the metering system (provided free, thank you very much) which could take as much as 50% of that income. AES would cut the power for non-payers, leaving many without light or television. AES, of course, needed to pay for the electricity it received, but considering the black hole of corruption in Georgia, the money it paid to those in charge of supply would disappear into the pockets of the energy ministry or other highly placed officials.
This is only one example. Armenia attempted the same with its distribution system - it did not work. The private sector built generation and distribution system in southern Tajikistan in Khorog fulfills the definition of bankrupt. In Khorog, the director of the facility was physically threatened when power was cut to homes. (Since I dealt with the firm which was owned by my employer at the time, it will go nameless).
There is the persistent idea that privatization of energy production, distribution or both in poverty rich nations like Armenia, Georgia and Tajikistan, is the optimum solution. It has not worked and cutting off power to the poor is not an option. A different way forward for energy reform in poor countries needs to be developed. The backlash by ordinary people in Georgia against the US (AES is based in the US)because they live in darkness and can't afford the cost, does not benefit US foreign policy goals. Conversion of formally state run companies providing "free" public services, such as electricity, into for-profit firms needs a re-assessment.
Denying essential services to those who cannot afford to pay is not an option.
Posting Gap and Israeli Sanctions Against US
I've been tied up with professional stuff and meandering about trying to get to Tanzania. Not there yet. Besides, nothing has happened in the past week...except this.
The most interesting part in this little missive was the proposal to interfere in US Congressional elections by donating to opponents of President Obama, which would likely backfire (aside from being borderline illegal unlike the continuation of settlement construction, which is totally illegal).
The most interesting part in this little missive was the proposal to interfere in US Congressional elections by donating to opponents of President Obama, which would likely backfire (aside from being borderline illegal unlike the continuation of settlement construction, which is totally illegal).
Friday, June 5, 2009
Reacting to Cairo in Tulsa
Despite the enormous temptation to do so, I rarely comment on what's reported in the American media - particularly when it include remarks made by the pitiful remains of what was once a national party and is now one of tired, old, racist white men from the South. However...and this will be quick...Senator Inhofe, arguably the dumbest person in the Senate in an unremarkably stupid speech...doesn't know "whose side he's on" when referring to his President. The fact that the speech was well received by everyone except extremists seems to be lost on the good Senator. But then, maybe not...
Anyway, the citizens of Oklahoma have elected this guy more than once, and they are not even embarrassed. Says something about Oklahoma. How many people have passports there, by the way. But then they need not visit a foreign country unless they accidentally wander north.
Anyway, the citizens of Oklahoma have elected this guy more than once, and they are not even embarrassed. Says something about Oklahoma. How many people have passports there, by the way. But then they need not visit a foreign country unless they accidentally wander north.
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