Palestinian Fail

A quick hit.

The Palestinian bid for UN status is stumbling badly together with its economic situation.  Arabs are not stepping up with funds; Germany has just said the UN bid is not welcome by it or other EU members; the US has said it will veto any measure reaching the Security Council. 

Arabs dislike, to say the least, Iran. Hamas is an ally of Iran.  Hamas refuses to recognize Israel. The Palestinian government (both of the them) are highly corrupt. The Arabs may be entering a 'Palestinian fatigue' state.

The Palestinians have picked the wrong friends.  Back in the past I said that Hamas needs to take the high ground. Recognize Israel and stop the useless attacks.  Get some sympathy - because once you lose the Arabs and their money, your hopes and dreams of statehood will vanish, Turkish support notwithstanding.

Wheels Down in Tajikistan

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Out of Qatar, the Middle East and into Central Asia - Tajikistan to be precise. A Persian people going back to the Samanids and their empire - a monument (see picture) to the Samanids adorns a central square. 

Dushanbe has changed since my last visit here back in 2008, at least physically.  Less dust, new buildings. The Tien Shen range of mountains is still on the horizon.  There are still police every 20 meters or so on the main street, Rudaki, arbitrarily stopping cars and extorting bribes from drivers on fabricated violations. For Independence Day (September 9) the government raised the largest flag pole in the world for a mere $35 million while sidewalks are still pitted and broken in many places. Some things never change.

More soon from Dushanbe and beyond...

Turkey Ups the Stakes

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What seemed to be half rhetoric and half serious has morphed into a threat that will have grave consequences arising from an inevitable "unfortunate incident" in the Eastern Med.  Turkey raised the stakes considerably today when PM Erdoğan  told al Jazeera that the Turkish navy will escort aid ships to Gaza.

On the same day President Gül - in Russia to attend the funeral ceremony for the Yaroslavl ice hockey team - stated that Israel was a burden to its allies and should negotiate an honourable peace.

These statements were quickly followed by the remarks of  Turkish Transportation Minister Binali Yıldırım that Israel’s raid last year on the aid flotilla was “no different” under international law than what Somali pirates are doing in the Gulf of Aden.

Prepare for the pundits to indulge in pleasant debates over the relative positions of Israel and Turkey, the type of intellectual massaging that produces no results.  I happen to think that Turkey is pushing the matter dangerously far although I have no sympathy for the current Israeli government or its apartheid policies.  A naval engagement would be tragic for the region and a lose - lose scenario for the participants. 

The Turkish navy is a significant entity - it can insert 8 highly capable and modernized missile and helicopter equipped Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates as well as almost triple the number of submarines than the Israelis can field.  If they toss in fast attack and missile boats they can overwhelm any Israeli attempt to block the aid convey unless Israel can establish air-superiority in which case would they actually attack Turkish surface ships. 

Will Israel risk war with Turkey?

Turkey and Israel - Failed Alliance; Dangerous Talk

Not to be an alarmist and, as everyone knows I don't like predictions because they are based on the selective past, but the sort of warning issued by Turkey to Israel regarding the freedom of passage in the Eastern Med is not helpful. 

The anger in Ankara with Israel is palpable and not without reason; but its explosive PM is sometimes over-the-top in his frequently pointed remarks, and as I've previously pointed out, Turkey needs to learn a little more diplomacy in its pronouncements regardless of the obvious temptation to tell others to piss-off or imply military action.  The most recent example is the following: “Turkey would take every precaution it deems necessary for the safety of maritime navigation in the eastern Mediterranean.” (a reasonable statement by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu) but which was followed by a clarification from an un-named Turkish official who said "A more aggressive strategy will be pursued. Israel will no longer be able to exercise its bullying practices freely...”  What the hell does that mean in terms of rules of engagement?

The region is in turmoil. Syria is in melt-down mode. A vote on Palestinian statehood is coming up at the UN. Egypt is still unstable. Hamas and Hezbollah are facing problems - the first with a still military controlled Egypt and the latter with the loss of Syria. A vote for Palestinian statehood may provoke a new intifada. Israel has already called up reserves. The US is pulling out and has no stomach for a fight with anyone.

A highly visible confrontation between the two naval forces would simply add to the regions problems and Turkish naval officers may run into equally nervous Israeli captains.  It's this sort of rhetoric that leads to "regrettable incidents resulting in loss of life".  Everyone needs to dial it down before the middle east goes up in flames.

Turkish warships will be more frequently seen in the area but their rules of engagement must be circumscribed and publicly announced.

Turkey Downgrades Israel

As a result of the findings in the UN report on the Gaza flotilla, Turkey has lowered the diplomatic level to the lowest it could without completely breaking relations.  The isolation of Israel is accelerating and will reach a high point when the vote for recognition of a Palestinian state is taken this month in the UN.

The complete inability of the Israeli government to reach a compromise for an apology has lost it a key ally for the forseable future. You can't get any dumber than this (well, you can - just take a look at the state of US politics courtesy of the Republicans and its Tea Party facist supporters).

Libya - No more headlines

Muhammar Qaddafi is encircled and under siege in Sirte and is now calling for one of the always possible scenarios to be implemented – guerilla war.    Effecting this scenario may well be problematic as it is unlikely he will escape the coming assault on Sirte.  The regime is dead – an internal revolution succeeded but only with the help of foreign intervention.  That’s important to remember, because otherwise this would have been a long and likely losing struggle.  Qadaffi has been in control for over 40 years and didn’t keep his power by being stupid or reluctance to do whatever was necessary to retain power.

Now that the fighting has narrowed to small pockets of resistance by Qaddafi loyalists, questions can be raised that have previously been dismissed.

Consider this.

Libya has nearly 45 billion barrels of oil reserves, 3.4 percent of the world’s known supply. Natural gas reserves are estimated at near 55 trillion cubic feet.

Most of Libya’s oil exports went to Italy – 32 percent of foreign sales as of 2009. The majority of the rest went to Germany, France, Spain and China (no veto of the no-fly zone imposition).

All existing contract will remain active, begging the question of the extent of modifications.  Who will get the new exploration and extraction licenses? ENI (Italy) or Total (France).

Will the existing contracts be modified from their current 90/10 revenue split between Libya and the companies? Tipping the balance is expensive.

How is it that a listed terrorist organization gets to be a freedom fighter group and whose head commands the Tripoli Military Council?  Change of name – change of status.

The Arab Spring, of which Libya was made a part, has been astonishingly lucrative. For weapons sales.

In the five months ending in June, the UK sold arms to Arab governments amounting to 30.5 million sterling, according the The Times – a 30% increase.  Germany, that bastion of peace which refused to take part in the naval blockade of Libya, nevertheless inked a contract with the Saudi’s (whose military crushed the Bahrain demonstrations by Shiites) for a division’s worth of high end tanks tagged at 1.5 billion euro only to be heavily trumped by the US - $60 billion of aircraft to Saudi Arabia over a 20 year period. This is only in the Arab Spring period – care to guess about the past ten years?

There is nothing wrong with disposing of people like Qadaffi and I support it.  But the media, as usual, has played the useful idiot and parrots the talking points of the protagonists while studiously avoiding the hypocrisy.  This is not a judgment.  It is important to make sure that events are not seen in isolation from other, important factors nor should decisions to act or not be viewed in black and white even if the short attention span or relative ignorance of populations demand simplistic analysis.

Last Word on Turkey

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In the not so distant past, Turkey was impoverished, inward-looking nation, mistrustful – if not actively hostile – to its neighbors who were seen as either enemies of the state at worst or backstabbing traitors at best.  Not.Any.Longer.

Turkey’s foreign policy has changed as rapidly as its internal politics – transforming from a closed, totalitarian system to a reasonably open and relatively liberal political environment while viewing its neighbors and Europe as opportunities and allies.  It is closer to European norms of democracy than the Kemalist military and bureaucratic omnipresence.

Turkey does not view the EU as indispensable and the status quo in the relationship will not spell the end of civilization as far as Ankara is concerned.  Turkey intends to continue policies of economic and diplomatic outreach with its neighbors as part of its expanding influence and commercial interests. Although not particularly concerned about the stalled EU accession process because the EU is still the largest trading partner, the atmospherics could be poisoned by the continuing deadlock resulting in an antagonistic attitude.

With the recent elections resulting in extending the 9 year rule of the AKP, concerns have been amplified regarding the direction of Turkey to the extent that France has even become more opposed to any accession talk.  These are misplaced concerns although the Putinization of the political structure remains a fear as the AKP and the PM in particular react adversely to any sort of criticism.  However, of the several scenarios for Turkish development, I think that the fear of a shift toward authoritarian rule – Islamist, or militant secularist/ Kemalist – is unlikely. I believe that Turkey will continue its path toward pluralism and liberal democracy.

We have seen that modern Turkey was founded through a top-down approach.  It was secular and authoritarian.  Between 1945 and the early 1980s a form of managed democracy took the place of the authoritarian regimes.  But, this managed democracy was run by the military.  It may have been multi-party but it was tightly controlled by the army and hand selected bureaucrats with an occasional coup thrown in. Then the evil empire vanished and with it the Cold War.  The most recent transition had begun to form a liberal, pluralistic society from the bottom-up which is still evolving, sometimes painfully.  The business class that grew from this transition came from the center of Turkey - conservative and Muslim; but, it believed in liberal economics and true democratic rule, not the elitism of the Istanbul business interests.

The economic change and the demographics of its source led to the founding of the AKP led by Erdoğan and his friends in 2001. The new party supported EU accession, and a European market styled democracy. It has been in power for a decade, many a huge number of mistakes and certainly has its flaws.  Critics have been unwelcome – and critics abound. But, it’s hard to argue with success - economic stability, an average of 6-7 percent annual growth rate, and a tripling of per capita income from little above $3,000 in 2002 to about $10,000 in 2010. Broad freedoms, economic success and a vibrant democracy are popular.  Try and change it and the AKP will fall.

In foreign policy, Turkey has reversed its previous attitudes toward its neighbors. Rather than viewing them with mistrust, they have been drawn closer.  Unlike the short sighted Europeans, no visas are required for travel between Georgia, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Russia and Syria.  The cost of visas for others is minimal and visas are, unlike those for a closed EU, easy to obtain.  This is called soft-power.

Much of the reforms and democratic trends over the past decade have been helped by the EU’s support.  Then political and economic changes in Europe modified the dynamics.  Despite the confirmation of Turkish EU eligibility by Brussels five times, the latest coming in 2002, the French simply decided to ignore EU rules and promises and actively opposed Turkey. No one in Europe pointed out to France that its opposition was improper.  The ossified EU system is making a mistake of huge proportions.

Turkey is discovering new methods of using its soft power, both cultural and economic, to expand its influence despite the snubs of the EU. They no longer perceive Russia or even Greece and Armenia as enemies. Its view of its neighbors reinforces Turkish self-confidence as a growing regional hegemon that does not need the approval of Europe or the US.  Turkish foreign policy continues to develop dynamically and proactively.  It looks ahead, not to the past but still remembers its history and civilization. Its neighbors should take notice because Turks do and it governs how they perceive the region and their role in it.  Geo-politically it occupies a unique position and has the economic, cultural and military depth to make itself a force.

This is why the EU’s antagonistic attitude is so astoundingly stupid.  Turkish foreign policy mantra of peace in the neighborhood is exactly that of the EU stated policy. It is already an extension of the policy established by Brussels and supports that policy.  Rather than show any sort of appreciation, Europe seems to think that this is some sort of competition. Another mistake and typical of European arrogance.  What is it that Europe doesn’t get?  Turkey is not Serbia or, frankly, Slovakia or Romania – just other applicant states. It is a strategic player and key to stability in the Middle East.

Europe, and to some extent the US, appear to think that Turkish involvement economically and socially with  Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, not to mention its strong desire to prevent a conflagration in the Middle East, are somehow signals of a change in direction away from the West.  This is not a zero sum game and this line of reasoning in Europe and the US borders on the absurd, playing only to the uninformed and for the benefit of the talking heads. 

Turkey has made some foreign policy mistakes but appears to be a quick learner. If Ankara is guilty of anything, it is one of tone.  The PM in this regard does not do himself any favours.  Ridiculous tirades against Israel, statements that genocide is prohibited by the Koran and therefore the government of Sudan could not have committed the crime, and walking out of meetings may play well in the Turkish media, but are intemperate and need to be avoided.

Turkey is a well on its way to becoming a regional, indispensible power – one that the EU and the US need to engage more effectively.  Turkey is charting a foreign policy path that protects and extends its interests.  The Cold War and the old blocs are gone.