Lesotho View

Over 2600 meters. Not what I anticipated.

Lesotho Landing - Ukraine and the Death of Democracy

Finally I've arrived in Maseru and getting my briefings. Photo's of beautifull countryside follow soon.

As for Ukraine, the Kremlin poodle has changed the rules in the Rada and implemented an unconstitutional change permitting individual members to change their vote rather than, as constitutionally required, remain with their bloc. Yanukovych, the criminal fraud of 2004 and new president, has his own PM. The election process worked allowing someone to come to power who will change enough rules to model himself on Russia, China, Iran and Venezualy. Europe - on their knees to the Kremlin - applauds, stability over democracy has won again. Putin has his empire back.

Hopefully, the opposition and the Constitutional Court will come to the rescue. But I doubt it.

Comments in other languages

Just a quick note - I can't publish (read - have not figured out how)comments in Japanese, Cyrillic or other similar alphabets. If anyone knows how to do that, please let me know.

International Relations Stupidity

Some examples today of total stupidity in international affairs:

1. The Armenia Genocide Resolution passes by one vote in the US. A grand victory for those comfortable Armenians in California who want to alienate the most powerful, democratic ally of the US in the region and destroy the reconciliation process between Turkey and Armenia in order to recognize an atrocity that happened under a completely different political structure almost a century ago and has nothing to do with Turkey. Maybe the US should now demand that Armenia break its alliance with the Russian Federation and expel its army.

The next resolution should be one that condemns Syria for the genocidal atrocities committed by Ashurbanipal, king of the Assyrian Empire against anyone he cared to roast alive including, in no particular order, Egypt, Iraq (then known as the Babylonian Empire) and Jordan(then part of the Elam Empire right next door that was essentially wiped out).

While we are at it, it was not so long ago that Italy burned Jerusalem and beseiged Masada. Apologies and reperations to Israel are required.

Last, but certainly not least, the US Congress should admit to its genocide of Native Americans. Oh, wait - they don't have a massive lobby or donate hugely to campaigns. Sorry.

2. Germany, that past paragon of virtue and peace, has suggested that Greece sell off its assets - particularly its uninhabited islands - to settle its debts. Let's see - this from a country that killed 400,000 Greeks between 1940 and 1944 and stole most of the money from the Greek banks. I guess Merkel needs a warm place to retire and will buy low, sell high.

3. Hillary Clinton, whom I otherwise support, delivered a remarkable statement in a news conference with Argentine President De Kirchner. The remarks from both to questions are as follows:

QUESTION: (In Spanish.)

And for the Secretary, it’s about the Falklands. The – President Fernandez talked about possible friendly mediation. Would the U.S. be considered – would the U.S. (inaudible) consider some kind of mediation role between the UK and Argentina over the Falklands? Thank you.


SECRETARY CLINTON: ...we want very much to encourage both countries to sit down. Now, we cannot make either one do so, but we think it is the right way to proceed. So we will be saying this publicly, as I have been, and we will continue to encourage exactly the kind of discussion across the table that needs to take place.

Um. Well, no. The UK has said very clearly that they do not intend to discuss the status of the Falklands so there is no possibility of sitting around a table to discuss that. Furthermore, no one living on the islands is interested in becoming Argentinian. There is no reason for the US to become involved and this statement is not helpful in the least and makes it look like a) the US can negotiate a settlement of territorial dispute that one side - a strong ally - has no intention of discussing and b) the US supports the Argentine position. Next time just say the US has no position.

Off to Africa Again

Starting Saturday I will post very little for at least a week or more. Work, as usual, has stuck its needful nose into my numerous non-profitable undertakings. I'll be in Kyiv and then back in Istanbul and then on to Lesotho.

From Lesotho, hopefully on March 13th or so, I'll be on line again. In the meantime, no revolutions without prior written notice please.

Oh, and like Cato the Elder: Watch out for Russia. (Not quite as energetic as "Cartago delenda est", but hey, its more politic...)

Another Win for Yanukovych and Russia - Europe is Next

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The government of Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko was dismissed today after a no-confidence vote passed with 243 of the 450-member parliament. The work now begins for Victor to form a new majority coalition. It needs to be remembered that individuals don't count in coalitions - only the parties as a group.

Party of Regions is the largest party in the parliament with 172 seats. To form a majority, PoR needs another 55 seats and Yanukovych has 30 days to do it. If he can -and that will not be easy - he will have another 60 days to create a new government for approval by the parliament. Yanukovych’s 172 seats, in addition to the Communist Party (27 seats) and Lytvyn (20 seats) are not enough to provide the required 226 seat majority - only 219. Close but no cigar. A minority is not permittd to nominate a PM.

The other blocs are the former Prime Minister's BYuT and the former President's Our Ukraine. It is very unlikely that these blocs will enter any coalition with Yanukovych, although not impossible.

If Yanukovych can't pull of a new majority, he will have to call a snap election. A new election is probably not what the MPs want because it is likely that Lytvn's bloc and Our Ukraine will be wiped out. What to do? What to do?

At this point, however, this is yet another win for Russia, and the changes have begun. Today as well, the head of the energy firm Naftogaz, Oleh Dubyna, was dismissed. Dubyna was a close ally of Yulia Timoshenko and of Viktor Yushchenko. Naftogaz management has been a target for Russia. This is the beginning of a purge to oust key people of whom the Kremlin doesn't approve or are connected to either Tymoshenko or Yushchenko. The metals industry will be on that list.

Aside from consolidating its gains in the Caucuses, Central Asia and Ukraine, Russia is now turning its attention to the dismantling of NATO, beginning with France and Germany.

Germany is already in thrall to Russia, both economically and to leverage its power within the EU. Almost completely dependent on the Kremlin for energy, the German government will show no willingness to challenge Russian actions in the Caucuses, including the overthrow of the Georgian government, or in Eastern Europe.

France, apparantly, is eager to sell modern, non-defensive weapons systems, like the Mistral, to Russia and threw a party for Medvedev in Paris this week. Surely noted in Tbilisi, Warsaw and the Baltic States was Medvedev's and Sarkozy's comments as reported here.

Russia and France took their courtship to a new level in Paris on Monday, entering talks about the sale of four French warships to Moscow, standing together against nuclear-minded Iran and urging a new global financial order.

A key business deal signed during Medvedev's pomp-filled visit Monday - giving France's GDF Suez a 9-percent stake in the Nord Stream gas pipeline project run by Russia's Gazprom - runs counter to efforts by U.S. and other European countries to lessen Europe's dependence on Russian pipelines and gas.

Medvedev, noting that French investment in Russia last year surpassed that of the U.S. for the first time, said, "That means we are on the right track." He urged French investors to help modernize the Russian economy Tuesday as the two countries' build major new energy, transport and even military partnerships. Addressing an audience of powerful business leaders from Russia and France on the second day of a visit to Paris, the Kremlin chief hailed what he said was an "unprecedented" economic partnership. "It is impossible to imagine relations between Russia and France without economic ties," he said at the French employers' association MEDEF, calling for Russian and French firms to buy stakes in one another.

"This truly strengthens relations," he said, inviting French investors to a economic forum in St Petersburg in June, where he hopes their expertise will "give the Russian economy an opportunity to adapt to modern life."

Medvedev hailed Sarkozy's "courage and will" when he sought to negotiate an end to Russia's war with neighboring Georgia in 2008. He said NATO - an alliance that Russia views as a U.S.-driven vestige of the Cold War - was no help in ending that war, but that European partners were. "What does this show? This shows that we ourselves should solve European issues," Medvedev said. Sarkozy said, "France defended the interests of Europe. ... We did it without using our army, we did it without threats."

Sarkozy seems to think that he defended European interests in mediating the war between Russia and Georgia. He defended France's interests, not Europe's. And, he has conveniently forgotten that Russia has not complied with key requirments that it agreed to in the settlement document, such as removal of forces. It is, in fact, building new bases.

Again, the free hand being delivered to Moscow is a direct result of the Iraq adventure, the continuing Afghan war, the economic recession in the US and its obsession with Iran. Regarding the latter, it is time to start assessing the options.

Attacking Iran is, to be blunt, stupid. There are simply too many variables and the inevitable instability in Iraq, disruption of oil from the Gulf and asymetrical attacks from Iran's allies in the Middle East, make that decision - however much the worst.Israeli.government.in.history wants it - impossible. The other option is accepting a nuclear Iran. The third option is something else. It involves looking at overlapping and more important interests.

Nixon to China.

The Trial of Radovan Karadzic

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Today, Radovan Karadzic, the former Bosnian Serb leader, obtained an adjournment of his genocide and war crimes trial in The Hague. This is not a surprise, as during the first day of the hearings, which he had earlier boycotted due to insufficient time to prepare, he again stated that he had a credible and strong defence to offer if he were given a little more time.

I've listened to portions of the hearings yesterday and from what I can discern he will need more than a little time if his defense rests on the claim that "they did it first". Unfortunately for him, 'they hit me first' is not a legal defense to murder, particularly in the case of of the 1995 massacre in Srebrenica, where Bosnian Serb forces killed some 8,000 unarmed Muslim men and boys.

He told judges he would use "marble-solid evidence" to prove that "there was never a plan nor an idea to expel Muslims from the Republic Srpska,".

A note to Karadzic - marble is porous. Stains always remain in place.