Request for the Day

We hear it often - usually from governments who are criticized for their less than open and transparent political and economic systems:
"(Fill in Country)practices its own form of democracy."

Note to the media. Please stop repeating this stuff. Western democracies vary in their systems, but Russia, China, Iran and similar states do not practice "a form of democracy". They practice a form of government that is distinct from Western forms of democracy. They are not democratic systems regardless of what they say.

Blinding Glimpse of the Obvious

According to Agence France-Presse (no link) opposition candidates in the Kyrgyz Republic's presidential election being held today claimed massive fraud.

Bakiyev will win with a percentage approaching 90%, if not higher.

Biden in Ukraine

Image via Wikipedia

As reported in Hurriyet, V.P. Biden breezed through town yesterday and gave a speech at Ukrainian House where he pointed out the obvious to Ukrainians - that their politicians put personal gain ahead of the nation's interests.

Since about 2005, as the alliance among the Orange Revolution participants began to unravel, the personal political ambitions of the leaders, including opposition leader and perennial presidential hopeful Victor Yanukovych, have trumped Ukrainian national interests. The apathy in Ukraine as to their political leadership is palpable. So, V.P. Biden's correct observation and admonition to, essentially, grow up, may fall on deaf ears.

He also met with all the potential and declared presidential candidates, which, I assume, was to get a read on their positions regarding NATO, the EU, Russia and energy issues. The pity is that the newest and freshest candidate, Arseniy Yatsenyuk pictured here, probably has no chance. It will come down between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych. President Yushchenko is dead last in the polls and approaching negative support at 2%.

The Hurriyet article makes a strange statement at the end which is not supported by any facts that "Biden leaves Ukraine later today for Georgia, another post-Soviet country with strong NATO ambitions..." The vast majority of Ukrainians do not support NATO membership.

Tough Times in the Baltics

Latvia is approaching an economic meltdown that could bring people out on the streets and the IMF is not helping the situation with its demands that collide with what the EU wants, and has received.

Latvia is not alone in Europe to feel the effects of the global recession, but it's recent failed bond sale back in June was, to say the least, eyebrow raising. All of Europe has struggled with stimulation plans that simultaneously increase budget deficits. For example, public debt in the UK was 52% of the GDP in 2008. Now,it is over 68%. Similar problems have appeared in Hungary, the Czech Republic, Spain and Estonia, to name a few.

Street demonstrations have became violent in Latvia at the beginning of 2009. As countries seek budget cuts to deal with deficits, demonstrations have increased in France and Greece.

Latvia's bond sale failure raised an issue with its monetary peg to the Euro (a requirement) prompting a demand by the EC to cut its deficit, which it did by dropping 10% from its pension funding. The EC then provided loan funds to help stabilize the economy. This is a tough decision, as cuts in social programs can easily translate into street riots. But, the EC required that 50% of the tranche be spent on shoring up the banking system.

Enter the IMF. They don't care as much about the banking system. So, their demand is a further cut in social programs - particularly in the pension system. This is asking for trouble and continues the history of the IMF demanding budgetary reforms which it knows, or should know, will result in social unrest. In the Baltics, of course, this plays into the hands of Russia which is happy to provide loans for political and not economic reasons.

The IMF is requiring changes that the EC does not. It is knowingly requiring budget cuts that will result in social unrest. During a global recession, this is certifiably stupid and I don't blame the Latvian Prime Minister Dombrovskis for saying "no".

Ads Removed

You will see that I have removed ads from the site. That's because, despite a page of instructions, I could not filter the ads. Scientology was placed on the site and the adsense site would not show any of the urls for the ads so I would be able to block them. This is a giant no-no. So until Google gets its act together - no more ads.

MEND and Nigerian Elections

Since I may be going to Nigeria in 2010 for a large project, I thought I should try to understand what exactly MEND (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta) and the government are up to with the recent amnesty plan, release of MEND leader Henry Okah from detention and the 60 day cease-fire that took effect on July 15.

MEND is a mixture of criminals and those wanting oil revenues to be shared more equitably in the Delta. My impression - and if anyone has some good information it would be welcome - is that the majority of MEND soldiers are simply the tools of some wealthy local criminal organizations more interested in extortion of funds from oil companies and keeping it for themselves. If that is truly the case, then why would the government provide a sweeping amnesty and why would a ceasefire only operate for 60 days?

If the government ruling party (the PDP) is making a deal, then it appears it is all related to securing its hold on the country, if not expanding it, during the election. If that is the case, will funds extracted from the oil companies end up in the PDP coffers? Since negotiations between MEND and the government will continue during the cease fire, I would think that the final deal between them will result in MEND helping, through intimidation and violence, the PDP to secure a massive election victory.

Anyone having deeper insight into Nigeria and MEND is welcome to comment.

Germany

Image via Wikipedia

President Medvedev and Chancellor Merkel signed a credit agreement yesterday worth 500 million euros to finance joint projects, primarily in mechanical engineering, RIA Novosti reported. The credit agreement was signed between Vnesheconombank and KfW Ipex-Bank. Medvedev and Merkel also signed a memorandum of understanding to modernize Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg. Medvedev also urged Germany to support the purchase of Opel by an international consortium of the Austrian-Canadian auto supply company Magna and Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank.

Germany under Merkel is a threat to European energy independence through its increasingly close ties to Russia. It is a threat to European independence from Russia in general. Time for the US to ramp up support for France, Poland and Turkey.