Russian War on Georgia

According to the AP Russia armour is now only 25 miles from Tbilisi. Last week 22 ships of the Black Sea Fleet steamed out of Sevastopol with a vanguard of troop landing ships. The stationing of troops outside of their zone as agreed upon with the EU is a dangerous situation and Russia clearly intends to eliminate the indepence of Georgia through military threats, if not an outright invasion.

The EU will protest and do nothing - just as it always has done. The US does not have the flexibility to intervene in any military way, nor should it. However, Russia desperately wants a new relationship with Washington and it should be made clear to Moscow that the "reset" button will indeed be reset if they invade.

Saakashvili must begin to negotiate a way out with the opposition which will likely mean his resignation. This might preclude a Russian invasion. He is ineffective as President of Georgia and provides Russia an excuse for invading. If he refuses to negotiate and expects help from either the EU or the US once Russian tanks start heading for Tbilisi, his sand castle will collapse and not only will Georgia cease to exist except as a province of Moscow, Russia will have full control of the oil pipeline in Georgia so as to maintain and increase its energy stranglehold on Europe.

Once Georgia is removed as an irritant, Russia will turn its attention to Ukraine which has elections coming in October. They have already illegally provided Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens in Crimea and have used that as a pretext before for military action.

It's reality check time. Russia is not an ally but an enemy of democracy and is reverting to its imperial ways.

Thought of the morning...

Why is it that people working within development agencies, as opposed to those who actually do the work in the field, want their results and recommendations before they are contractual due?

Too much going on...plus Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Ukraine

I've been swamped with work in Ghana and events in Europe and Asia are cascading in ever increasing speed. However, I intend to get to it this weekend and we should be posting from Damascus and Baku shortly (reading this guys?).

First, there is Moldova where the recount confirmed the recent vote and victory for the Communist (sic) party by a hair and protests are likely to continue despite the outrage expressed by President Medvedev who really, really hates color revolutions. I find the offer of passports by Romania to 1 million Moldovans an interesting move - one that Russia uses to then follow up with an invasion to protect its "citizens". How far will Russia go with Moldova? Better - how far will Bucharest go?

Second, there is Georgia where protests are also likely to continue but may be bolstered by actual political alternatives to Saakashvili. Who will it be? What will he or she propose vis a vis Russia and NATO? Russia's dispatch of its entire Black Sea fleet this past week - with landing ships preceding the blue water craft and the rapid buildup in Abkhazia is meant as a threat. But to do what? The NATO exercise scheduled for early May has led to some hysterical statements coming out of Moscow. Perhaps the window of opportunity for Russia is closing a bit. Perhaps not. Saakashvili still needs to go but the opposition needs to have a leader and a plan of which there is absolutely no evidence so far.

Turkey and Armenia are shaking hands and Baku is stamping its foot like a spoiled child. Will the end of April see open borders? How will Russia react? How will Turkey handle the upcoming meetings with the EU regarding gas and oil supplies through Turkey? Is that why Putin and Gazprom are off to Bulgaria? Will Turkey risk Russian retaliation if it makes a deal with Armenia and pushes the Russians out?

Ukraine is, well, Ukraine. Will the IMF advance it the funds it needs to stabilize or continue to require unreasonable actions to reduce the budget deficit? They left Kyiv without saying. Will all the old guard need to die off before Ukrainian politicians serve their country more than themselves? Perhaps.

So...plenty to post about and as soon as I am out of the jungle in the Volta region of Ghana, I will.

Failed State No. 1

The rescue of Captain Phillips of the Maersk Alabama was both wonderful and an amazing display of marksmanship. Now, however, very good questions are being raised here. They deserve to be addressed, since as is correctly pointed out, the level of violence is likely to escalate.

Beyond these questions, lie even more difficult ones that include policy decisions on how to handle, if at all, the failed state of Somalia. Clearly, foreign assistance to arrest the decline of Somalia is impossible. It is not safe for anyone to be based there for any period of time. But sooner or later, something will need to be done.

Piracy, although a headline grabber, is not the key problem. Although I am sure there are pirates who simply don't care and enjoy their life, how many have been driven to it by the collapse of Somalia as a state. This raises the larger question of true terrorists making Somalia a base of operations because of so many, particularly among the youth, who will be attracted by fundamentalist activities and promises.

So. What must be done?

Failed State yet?

Today, Pakistan's President Zardari signed the Nizam-i-Adl, or System of Justice, Regulation into law following the approval of Parliament. Rarely does a democratically elected chamber approve of such a vile, anti-democratic regulation. But then, Pakistan is a failed state - or about to become one. One with nuclear weapon capability.

This obnoxious religious regulation arose from the cave-in by the provincial government of the North-West Frontier Province and the jihadist movement in the Swat region that calls for a shariah-based legal system to be implemented in the area in exchange for an end to the insurgency. That included laying down arms. Is it surprise that the arms were not surrendered?

So, what are the development agencies going to do now in Pakistan?

Russian Flexibility in Defense of Empire

Russia, through its foreign policy wing, Gazprom, has changed its position on penalties imposed against Ukraine for not purchasing the contractual amount of gas. Now it will impose the penalties according to Kommersant Ukraina (sorry, no link). There is nothing wrong with this based on contractual law - except for the glaring fact Gazprom and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin had said in March that Russia would not demand penalties connected to Ukraine’s import shortages.

The fact that Putin and Russian government are untrustworthy and, basically, liars, is secondary to the use of the oil/gas weapon to recreate the Soviet Union. But Russian proclivity for outright lies should be noted.

Delusional Saakashvili

Saakashvili is now reaping the civil society whirlwind. Perhaps he now regrets all those civil society NGOs set up by USAID. Nevertheless, he must go and the organizers of the protests should understand this is not the Rose, Orange, Chestnut or whatever color one chooses, revolution. They too, had better have a plan beyond the resignation of Saakashvili - unless they actually are intent on the disintigration of Georgia.

Saakashvili, for his part, should begin by being less delusional. His interview with Newsweek, is short of understanding, long on self-pity and is not helpful. On the delusional front, there is this:

Who are your supporters in the U.S. today?
I have quite a few good contacts. Of course, my best friend was John McCain. You can say he is Georgian already. We expect McCain to come and visit us in a week or so. I have good relationships with Hillary Clinton, Joseph Biden and especially Richard Holbrooke—he is my teacher. I learned a lot of great things from him.

and this...


Do you feel that the West is disappointed with you? Have you been in touch with President Obama yet?
Oh, yes, I have talked to him on the phone. The problem is not about us—the problem is about their own internal politics. We have integrated into U.S. internal politics. So during the change of power, there was some sort of vacuum in America. Nobody knew what to do with us. Everybody, including France, was waiting for Obama's guideline on what to do about Georgia. I admire American ideas. I used to idealize America under Bush, when ideas were above pragmatic politics. Now it is a new time, when pragmatic politics are in charge of ideas. That might spoil the America I know.

He cannot really believe that 1) McCain has any power or credibility or leverage or 2) that Georgia has integrated into U.S. internal politics or 3) there was "some sort of vacuum in America" during the transition. France was certainly not waiting for Obama's guidleline on what to do about Georgia. He idealized America under Bush? Is this a joke? Where pragmatic politics are in charge of ideas now? Is that bad - especially in this case?

This man needs to go for the sake of Georgian independence. Now. It is time for the US to engage with the oposition.