Thursday, September 17, 2009

BMD mania...

Yeah, what he said....

Why are we afflicted with this crap from Goldfarb....?

Iran, Israel, Russia, US

I am still curious as to what was discussed - if that's the right word - during the less than secret meeting in Moscow between Medvedev and Netenyahu. Iranian negotiating tactics (delay, hesitate and produce long but meaningless reports) are normally very successful. Indeed, the latest round of proposed talks regarding its nuclear program has been delayed beyond the meeting of the UN General Assembly. They were supposed to start prior to the session.

Now that Iran says they will talk about anything except their nuclear program, it seems to me that the meeting will need to take place just for the sake of appearances. What happens next?

Russia probably believes Washington will do nothing. Washington will work with Europe to impose sanctions (gasoline is the most likely target). Russia and China will not go along. Israel, under Netenyahu is not even proximately involved in negotiations regarding sanctions. This diplomatic gamesmanship among the parties could blow up in all our faces if Netenyahu decides that Israel needs to attack Iran. If that happens, oil prices will shoot up to Pluto - and that would be the least of the ramifications.

This could turn out to be a mess mostly because all the parties may be misreading the motives and possible actions of each other.



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Alphabet Soup in Turkey

OK. I'm not at all sure that the plan to include the letters Q, W and X to the Turkish alphabet which are necessary to the Kurdish language is as dangerous to the Turkish nation as portrayed by the opposition. Nevetheless, as reported in Hurriyet "the move was harshly criticized by the opposition Wednesday".

“It’s impossible to include such letters in the alphabet according to our Constitution and existing laws,” Hakkı Süha Okay, deputy parliamentary group leader of the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, told reporters Wednesday.

I've just finished reading the independent report on EU accession by Turkey, which was not favorable to the EU - or some of the EU at least. But this constant patrolling of the border of the oppostion's damaged self-esteem is not helpful.

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No BMD for Poland/Czech Republic

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the BMD system proposed by Bush (and which never worked very well, to be generous) for deployment in Poland and the Czech Republic is about to be dropped. Meanwhile, Russia is deploying more troops in Belarus.

The purpose of deploying the BMD was not because of the unrealistic policy of protecting Europe from Iranian missles. The Bush administration had a amazing capacity for mendacity and apparent self-deception in this regard. Deployment created a footprint in Eastern Europe and backing for those countries on Russia's borders who felt most threatened by Russian expansionism.

It is doubtful that Russia will see this as a concession. They are not stupid. If it is meant to pull Russia away from its support of Iran, the move won't work except perhaps on the margins of cooperation. Under Putin/Medvedev, Russia still operates within a zero-sum approach, so the NATO partners need to consider what will replace the BMD footprint.

Poland in particular is looking for US support to replace what it considers is soft backing from NATO largely due to the increasingly close relationship between Germany and Russia. What will Obama offer in return?

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Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Russia Legislates Unilateral Intervention

MOSCOW, RUSSIA - APRIL 24: Russian soldiers ma...Image by Getty Images via Daylife

The Russian Duma recently passed its first reading of a new amendment to its Law on Defense. Unfortunately, it has nothing to do with defense, but a great deal to do with military intervention in its sphere of influence. If enacted (and there is no doubt that the Duma, as ever, will pull out its rubber stamp) the amendment provides for using its military to "protect" Russian citizens outside its borders. History recalls that the Nazi regime in Germany used exactly that pretext for invasion.

Russia has a proclivity handing out passports to citizens of foreign countries. Guess what the reason was for the invasion of Georgia? Leaving aside the unwise provocations by the Georgian government, this is a dangerous new trend in Russian foreign policy and could easily be applied to Ukraine. Russia has handed out thousands of passports to its supporters in Crimea.

It would be unfortunate if Russia resorted to its military again, particularly against Ukraine which, despite a pathetic military, is no Georgia. Additionally, Russia's military is hardly an efficient fighting force having been embarrassed on the ground and in the air in the Georgia conflict (its navy performed very well).

The passage of this amendment would also be aimed at Estonia and the other Baltic States. It is clear Russia would only use its military against far weaker foes, so Russian "citizens" in Poland, Turkey, China and Finland probably should not hope for salvation from the motherland quite yet.

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Dar (as in Dar es Salaam)

Dar es Salaam SunsetImage by will likes tea and biscuits via Flickr

Well, finally arrived and up and running in Dar es Salaam (House of Peace). We are going to try and streamline the land tenure system in Tanzania which is under a huge strain despite having arguably the best land code in Africa.

I'm also looking forward to seeing the Serengeti (already tried the beer of the same name) Ngorongoro Crater, the Great Rift Valley, Zanzibar and Kilimanjaro, that is, in between work.




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Saturday, September 12, 2009

Out of the US - Thankfully

The failure to blog has been because of my peripatetic nature and lack of time. I spent about two weeks in the US at my home in Virginia. I could not be happier to have left the US, although not my farm - a fortress of sanity and intelligence, frankly, in a sea of stupid.

I have encountered in the US the epitimization of angry, fundamentally obtuse (deliberate or not) white men - who also happen to be bigots and racists. It is not a small proportion, I fear.

I hope I am wrong, but what I see in the US is the grasping rise of immoral Catonians, corporatists and their sycophants - all of whom cleave to a false moralism for the sole purpose of stealing power. They, mostly old, white, male Republicans, are essentially hateful, stupid and bigoted and some are elected. Those who are not stupid are merely immoral bigots, flying the stars-and-bars symbolising support for treason-in-the defence-of-slavery on their trucks, cars, homes and lawns. They know nothing about the Constitution. They are all Republicans. These people live immoral lives, as frequently depicted in the media, and many profess to be Christians. But they are not. They are fundamentalists exactly like Muslim fundamentalists. They are anti-black, anti-brown, anti-poor, anti-science and anti-federalism. They are supported by the media because they make news and money for the corporations that own the media.

The media presents creationism as a legitimate debating point. The media reports the opening of creationist museums depicting humans living with dinosaurs and the earth being "created" about 6,000 years ago. Note to Christian fundamentalists - medical schools have rejected candidates for admission based on the fact that creationism is taught as a science in some places - so the intelligent students will leave you behind, thankfully. Ignorance is not bliss. It is a stage on the road to extinction - intolerable and it must be stopped. This ignorance is exemplified by the photo of the complete idiot holding a sign at a town hall meeting that demanded that the government keep its hands off medicare - a government program. Worse of course, are those who don't believe in any of this crap but still vote Republican. They are lower than the true believers and have no excuse. They should, but won't be, ashamed. It means they want power at the expense of everything else. Sad, maybe. Dangerous. Absolutely.

What struck me most are the outright lies shouted by the tea-baggers and their political supporters regarding health care - all dutifully reported by the media as legitimate positions. In that regard, we have now been treated to a moron and another angry, white, southern, bigot, Joe Wilson, who has extended the tactics of the great white ignorant unwashed into Congress. He needs to go. Now. Bush, despite all the evil he perpetrated on the people of the planet (and the US economy as an apparent afterthought) while mouthing support for the right wing fundamentalists never suffered that type of outburst in Congress. How dare Wilson?! The Romans would have had him flogged, at the least.

Then, we were treated to another hyprocritical fundamentalist who could not identify a hot from cold mike and broadcast his recent extra-marital escapades. Former state Rep. Michael Duvall (R-Yorba Linda) was kicked off his committee and forced to resign over his raunchy bragging about his sexual exploits at a committee hearing last week in Sacramento.

If that was not enough within the framework of failure perpetrated by the Sanctimonious Hypocrisy,Pro-Rich, Old White and Racist Know-Nothing Party (formally referred to as Republicans)good old Newt (and the organization he represents) awarded an Entrepreneur of the Year award to Allison Vivas - of producer of "Pink Visual". You get the picture. Don't get me wrong - the porn industry is huge and growing - but for those who represent the no-sex and treason-in-defence-of-slavery party, this is typical.

It is rarely reported that rape, abuse of women, underage pregnancy and crime are the highest in the states that vote Republican most consistently. And they are in the South. Guys, cut them out of the picture. If Texas wants to secede, let it. Then we can require visas, take away the Dallas Cowboys (no longer America's Team), remove all federal funding and the army, NASA, Medicare and every other federal program and, hopefully, allow Mexico to invade and take it back. Please.

The nihilistic Republicans need to be crushed, destroyed and thrown into the dust-bin. To those blue dogs who talk to me about Obama's failure - you are traitors to the Republic and part of the problem. You are supposed to lead - not follow. Teabaggers can be thrown under the bus. Stop being Catonian. You can only be that with a strict morality.

Republicans and Blue Dogs are Catonian corporatists without the requisite morality. That is fundamentally evil and one can only hope that what happened to the original Catonians happens to them.

All in all, I am glad to leave the US. When a huge proportion of the people don't get a simple concept like "public option"; when they think the planet was created6,000 years ago; when they think Obama's parents plotted almost 50 years ago to fake a birth certificate and elect him president; when they believe brain-dead people like Newt Gingrich, Senator Inhofe, Representative Bachmann and a little insignificant moron like Glenn Beck then, as Montesquieu said, they will get the government they deserve. They got it with 8 years of Bush and a Republican controlled Congress that gave short shrift to governance, rectitude, finance or compromise.

For the Democrats there can be no wavering, no compromise. The Republican Party in its present incarnation is against the principles of the Constitution and the Republic and needs to be finished off. It is evil.

I'm now in Tanzania. No further diatribes on the US. Oh - my home town - please secede before it is too late.