Israeli Deeds vs Words

Israel purports to support economic development for Palestinians as an antidote to extremism bred out of poverty. That policy is being put to an interesting test and the Israeli government appears, again, to be failing in its self-proclaimed effort to promote Palestinian economic stability and growth. This is not the first time, of course, and the treatment of Palestinians who happen also to be Israeli citizens is not exactly the same as other Israelis. An example is the construction of walkways in Palestinian areas of Jerusalem that are deliberately set lower than where Jewish citizens walk. The placement of the shorter chair for the Turkish ambassador is a recent example of this type of degrading action targeted at those whom the Israel government is displeased.

In any event, the report of the construction of a new, planned suburban town called Rawabi in the West Bank,funded by a Qatari firm, to house Palestinians in an American type suburban setting, puts Israeli words up against deeds. The issue in question is not the construction of the complex (which has already begun), but access. The entire access road runs through Palestinian territory - except for 3 kilometers(just short of 2 miles)under Israeli control. Without an access road no one will buy or rent in the new town. So far, the Israeli government has refused to answer the requests by the developers and has even refused to comment to the AP.

The current Israeli administration needs to respond quickly and positively to this type of activity. To continue to fail to do so says more about this government's future plans for the West Bank and the Palestinian state than any statements to the contrary.

Haiti - Thought for the Day

All outstanding foreign debt (IDB etc) should be cancelled today.

Secondary thought of the day: Limbaugh and Robertson should be locked up in a hole without food and water for the rest of their miserable, hateful lives.

Israeli Loose Cannon

Image via Wikipedia

Summoning the ambassador of the major power and normally friendly neighbor and treating him like this is profoundly stupid. Too stoop to this type of childish behavior over a television show makes it even worse, if that is possible. Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon should be fired - or made ambassador to some suitable place - Vanuatu comes to mind - where he can't inflict any more damage in a region becoming more unstable by the day.

It might also be beneficial to remind Israel that aside from severe (and beginning to seem justifiable) criticism of Israel's attack in Gaza, Turkey has always worked closely with them. Alienating your last friend in the region - and the most powerful at that - is not a good plan of action. But then I think this is the worst possible government Israel has ever elected. You tend to reap what you sow. Perhaps you've heard of this, Danny?

Unfair Trade Practice for Consultants: Exclusivity Letters

This has always been an annoyance for me and other consultants: Letter of Exclusivity.

Frankly, consultants should begin to demand that if a letter of exclusivity for a proposal is demanded (more often than not a requirement by donors such as USAID and the EU and the like) then that constitutes an opportunity cost which must be covered by a payment. It is an option. Companies pay for options. This should be palatable for the consulting firm if it is coupled with a deal that if the project is awarded, then the payment can be deducted from the consultant's remuneration. If the consulting firm loses the the bid, then, well, that's how options work. If the consultant withdraws after the payment is made and before any decision, then the money must be returned. It may even be structured so as to place the funds in a trust with the consultants bank.

This strikes me as completely fair. That's why it won't happen. Consultants are also terrified that they will be blackballed for being the first or even part of a small group demanding this change.

Adventures is Customs Control - Africa Style

A propos of nothing in particular, I need to have a word with those consultants who advise on anti-corruption matters, specifically in customs control.

After a year in captivity in Bishkek, my "stuff" (including my golf clubs) arrived in Dar es Salaam via Istanbul, Frankfurt and Nairobi. Getting at it was another matter. Kenya Airlines never bothered to tell me when they were sending it down and they did so a week ago, thereby giving me the privilege of paying storage charges as the airport. No matter. Then, however, came the exciting half day at the cargo terminal of Nyerere International Airport.

First, don't ever try to do this alone. Select one of the facilitators at the main gate whom you will pay to do all the dirty work. That work means filing more forms than I care to count, photocopying identification, describing the goods and generally running around to get the shipment released. I had three hard working fellows on my side. They ran from Swissport offices to the payment windows and to me (for tax payments, signing documents, providing my passport etc.) and then, after two hours ambled over to the customs warehouse with me in tow to have the shipment "inspected".

I was quietly told that we needed to "take care" of the inspectors (five of them). My reaction was not shock (anti-corruption consultants take note) that bribery was going on here - I just wanted to know how much I needed to "take care" of them. As it turned out, my facilitators had negotiated a good deal. About $50 which I dutifully paid in Tanzanian Shillings. Suddenly, the inspectors dropped whatever other inspection they had not be paid to perform and tore into my shipment. It took ten minutes and, with a flash of papers and a wave, the next to the next final step was done.

It took another 45 minutes to pay for storage, grab a receipt and then run to another person to get the signed release and gate pass all before the entire office shut for the day. So, after all that and paying my facilitators, I was off.

Anti-corruption efforts only work if salaries are reasonable and punishment is certain, swift and decisive. Since none of that exists in Tanzania, at least at customs control, I was more interested in not waiting a week to collect my stuff. Hence, the automatic reaction to "taking care" of the officials. If the facilitation payment had not been made, very little would have transpired. Such is reality.

Back to work.

Dagestan Rebel Funding and Russia

An Agence France Press Report published in Hurriyet on Saturday reported on a Russian news broadcast that Dagestan rebels were being financed by supporters in Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan and the United Arab Emirates. Interesting that Georgia was included in an otherwise Islamic country list and may be just gratuitous, although Georgia does have at its disposal some very wealthy individuals. Georgia also has some justifiable grievances against Russia. Nevertheless, this appears to be part of a growing Kremlin campaign to solidify and set the stage for extending its position in the Caucuses even if it is a legend. But,even if true, the distinction made between funding by a country and its citizens does not change the Russian paranoia of foreign interference in an attempt to dismantle or neuter the Federation. Last week, for example, the Kremlin's installed leader of Chechnya called for the liquidation of Ukraine and Georgia referring to the collapse of the Soviet Union as foreign sponsored.

Putin may be using these statements to gauge public and international reactions. An adverse, reaction would allow the Kremlin to disavow any reported plans and distance itself from the 'liquidation' remarks made by the murderer currently in charge in Chechnya. However, regardless, these statements seem to be warning to Turkey and Azerbaijan not to press their foreign policies too independently in the Caucuses.

As I suggested in my post below, Russia will seek to solidify and expand its control over the Caucuses in the coming year. Saturday was the first stage - control the message.

Predictions

And off we go.

In the 1st year of the next decade (yeah, yeah, I know - it really starts in 2011. Well, that's not the common usage, so live with it.) I'll indulge in a couple of predictions.

Prediction 1 - The last free and fair election in Ukraine will be in January if Yanukovich wins so he can fulfill his threat to end "democracy".

Prediction 2 - The new Russian empire will expand and consolidate its hold on Central Asia, Ukraine and the South Caucuses.

Prediction 3 - The US will increase its military footprint in the Baltics and Poland to counter the newly imperial Russia.

Prediction 4 - Turkey will flex its newly found military, economic and (most importantly) cultural muscle in the Middle East, most of the time against the wishes of the US and Israel.

Prediction 5 - Iran will continue to experience shocks to its social system with a concomitant reduction in its ability to interfere abroad until it reaches a tipping point - at which time they will do something stupid.

Prediction 6 - There will be a ground assault on Somali pirates.

Prediction 7 - The "surge" in Afghanistan will not achieve its intended goals, and the Afghan military will continue to be the phantom army of the 21st century.

Prediction 8 - Political relations between Germany and the US will continue their slide as Germany becomes more reliant on Russia for energy and trade.

Prediction 9 - The Israeli government will continue its illegal construction activities on Palestinian land despite international condemnation and new fighting will erupt between Hezbollah and Israel.

Prediction 10 - All the previous predictions will change as the inevitable chaos theory takes over.

Welcome to the next decade.