Obama Wins Nobel Peace Prize

Good.

And I am very happy that the Republican Party has finally found its natural allies who were equally critical of the award to the President: Hamas, the Taliban and Iran.

Most Persecuted Person in History

Image via Wikipedia

The law giving Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi immunity from prosecution has been struck down by Italy's Supreme Court. The Prime Minister now feels unjustly put upon since he will need to defend himself from what promises to be an onslaught of criminal charges, including bribery and corruption. OK. Innocent until proven otherwise.

But...these responses as reported in the BBC probably won't help him much:

"In my opinion, and not only mine, I am the best prime minister we can find today."

"I am without doubt the person who's been the most persecuted in the entire history of the world and the history of man..."

and the best -

...explaining that the money had gone on paying "consultants and judges", before correcting himself to say "consultants and lawyers". Freud would be nodding his head.

Stay tuned for a mountain of quotables as the trials loom and lumber forward.

The Turkish Armenia Protocols

Without question, both Turkey and Armenia are moving toward a mutual understanding while pinching their respective noses. I have long said that the relationship between Ankara and Yerevan was unsustainable for a variety of reasons.

First, the Nagorno-Kharabakh issue was not going to be settled on terms that either Yerevan or Baku liked. While working in Armenia for three years I found that the consensus expressed was that the NK should - and indeed could not be returned to Azerbaijan. However, the parallel consensus was that Armenia should not keep its military presence in the areas bordering the NK. They felt that the NK was Armenia but acknowledged that the occupied areas were exactly that - occupied and should be returned. This may ultimately be part of the deal. In addition, for all the bluster coming from Baku, they were not going to start another war if only because they would run smack into Russian border guards and Turkey would not back them up. That is why it recently proposed that the NK become semi-independent.

Second, Armenia is landlocked, poor and cannot grow economically with closed borders. They mistrust Iran and are not particularly close to Georgia whom they felt indulged in a great deal of profiteering during the war at the expense of Armenia despite being coreligionists. Businesses in Eastern Turkey have long wanted access to and across Armenia and Armenia needs the trade that will result - particularly if it then has additional access to the Black Sea and is not forced to use Georgian ports.

Finally, Turkey would like this diversion ended. It is a rising power in the Caucuses and Central Asia, not to mention the elephant in the room in the Middle East. Turkey is a competitor with Iran and is a democratic country - more so than any of its neighbors. The beginning of the end of this problem would allow Turkey to concentrate on expanding its influence, likely at the expense of Iran and Russia even though Russia wants a hold on Armenia.

The Armenia diaspora is demonstrating actively against any rapprochement. But then, I have always observed that, aside from summer vacations, they don't have to live in Armenia but can retreat to their pleasant California or French homes where they have running water, electricity 24 hours a day and incomes that exceed $35 a month. The Armenians, left to themselves, would have sorted out their international relations some time ago.

Settlements and compromises usually come gradually in diplomatic affairs. Finally, a major step appears to be on the verge of happening. Good.

Mouse in the House

I've just learned an important lesson. Don't leave the front door open at night in Dar es Salaam for more than a few seconds. A mouse slipped in and it took almost an hour to chase it out. Not a smart animal, but amazingly quick.

Conveniently, this allows an easy segue into the planned attendance by Senator Inhofe to the UN Climate Change Conference to be held in Copenhagen in December.

Senator Inhofe is arguably the dumbest person in Congress, so his plan to tell the conference participants, many of whom are eminent scientists, that the US will not pass any legislation to deal with climate change is laughable. This is the deep thinker who famously announced a few years' back that there could not be global warming because Oklahoma had more snow in the month of March 2009 than ever in recorded history. Fortunately, participating to abate climate change, something the rest of the world actually knows to be true, will be supported by legislation in the majority of countries including the US.

More importantly, since no one with an IQ exceeding 80 will listen much less take seriously anything this mentally challenged politician says, is the concept that he and his "Truth Squad" are actively undermining the policy of the elected government of the US. Perhaps not treason, but actively undermining the policy of the government is a violation of the Logan Act. That's a felony.

The scope of this active effort to undermine the announced foreign policies of the US government is truly amazing. It includes visits to Israel, China and Honduras all for the explicit purpose of announcing to the world that policies of the US government are not substantive and, indeed, are shams. Again, perhaps not treason, but they are damn close to the line and certainly could be considered felonious actions. I am not aware of any other country where the opposition party actively works to undermine its stated foreign policy. It would not even be a brief thought in Great Britain. That's left to the "uniqueness" of America I suppose.

No Olympics for Chicago

For some valid reasons. Oh well...get over it. Brazil did a good job selling Rio. Not the end of civilization.

Note to the right wing toons in the US - celebrating a loss for the city of Chicago as some sort of political vindication for you is, to say the least, typical of bullies and morons. Go back under your rock.

Tidbit for the Day

Image by Edgley Cesar via Flickr

After looking at the operating hours of an office here in Dar, I was completely confused when I saw 3:00 - 7:00. Then I found out that in Swahili, that means 9:00 to 1:00 PM. Why? You might well ask that.

In Swahili, time is represented by the rise of the sun which, being almost on top of the equator, is usually at 6 AM. So. Being pastoralists 3:00 is 9:00 because it is 6hours past the sunrise. Reverse for the afternoon - so 7:00 is 1:00 PM.

Thus endeth the lesson.

Development Terms of Reference

Excuse the rant, but I have a couple of points to make about TOR writing and expectations of donors, land reform in particular - one of my principal areas of expertise.

One. Land reform that aims to help the public in general and give the poor access to capital in particular, relies on only one key component. Secure tenure. All the rest is fluff.

Two. Secure tenure can be achieved within the confines of two key structures. The first is title registration (I exclude clearly successful deed recording as in South Africa or the United States) and second, effective enforcement mechanisms through the courts or other institutions.

Three. Title registration - the love of donors and particularly the World Bank - is not rocket science.

Four. Surveyors can be the enemy of rapid registration of title, especially in poorer countries where land is worth nothing but the surveyors insist on five to ten centimeter accuracy - in rural areas. Taste reality. People on the ground know where their boundary runs. Don't interfere. I have been in too many countries where no boundary disputes existed before the surveyors landed in their mother ship.

Five. Donors need fewer agricultural economists and surveyors driving secure tenure because the vast majority (except for a few, really, really smart practitioners) don't have the slightest regard of the foundations of the policy of secure land tenure. Valuable land is located in urban areas. That's why everyone is moving there and creating, as in Africa, slums at the rate of five percent a year. Give these people tenure first. The wilderness can come next.

Finally. Donors should not permit the release of a TOR that ignores the edges. In other words, don't target one area for reform without looking at the other sectors that directly or indirectly feed into that one area. That is not negligent. Or lazy.

It is stupid and a waste of money.

End of Rant. Thank you and my apologies to agricultural economists and arm-chair reformers.