So, a small Moslem country is ok. A large one, well......
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Turkish Nationalism
Prime Minister Erdogan seems to be going over the edge recently. I admit I am a strong supporter of Turkish accession to the EU (although the economic utility of membership is highly questionable) as well as a supporter of its newly found self-awareness and confidence of Turkish foreign policy. But...
The PM's recent remarks, after the Armenian Genocide Resolution that recently passed a US Congressonal Committee vote, which threatened to expel 100,000 of the approximately 170,000 Armenians from Turkey because only 70,000 are citizens is, to be diplomatic, not helpful. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, the upcoming elections may have something to do with his growing, excessive nationalistic positions. They are, nevertheless, unhealthy in a country that has come so far politically and economically. Turkey has made this mistake in the past. It has not been to its benefit.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Moscow Metro Murders
The appalling terrorist attacks in Moscow yesterday morning need to be loudly condemned. However, if indeed these murders were committed by Chechen insurgents, as appears very likely, the Russian response should not be more violence against Chechnya of which there has been more than enough since 1994. A different approach is needed to isolate the extremists.
In 1995 while living in Moscow, a close friend, extremely Westernized and who eventually went on to be a reporter for a major Western newspaper, admitted that her feelings about Chechnya were to put fence around it and its people and let it suffocate. That feeling is likely to intensify now. It would be a mistake to translate such an emotion, arising from the first Chechen War launched by Yeltsin, into policy.
Perhaps a first step would be for Moscow - and especially PM Putin - to take another look at the criminal, murdering thug that was put in charge in Grozny. Ramzan Kadyrov is, quite simply, a lunatic who has showered his own people with terror, advocated a second Russian invasion of Georgia, a new invasion of Ukraine and otherwise calls on Russia to "liquidate" the threats that Ukraine and Georgia represent to Russia.
Prime Minister Putin put him in charge. A change of leadership in Chechnya might be a place to start to isolate the murderers on the metro and eventually destroy their ability to function. It's not as if Putin doesn't call the shots.
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In 1995 while living in Moscow, a close friend, extremely Westernized and who eventually went on to be a reporter for a major Western newspaper, admitted that her feelings about Chechnya were to put fence around it and its people and let it suffocate. That feeling is likely to intensify now. It would be a mistake to translate such an emotion, arising from the first Chechen War launched by Yeltsin, into policy.
Perhaps a first step would be for Moscow - and especially PM Putin - to take another look at the criminal, murdering thug that was put in charge in Grozny. Ramzan Kadyrov is, quite simply, a lunatic who has showered his own people with terror, advocated a second Russian invasion of Georgia, a new invasion of Ukraine and otherwise calls on Russia to "liquidate" the threats that Ukraine and Georgia represent to Russia.
Prime Minister Putin put him in charge. A change of leadership in Chechnya might be a place to start to isolate the murderers on the metro and eventually destroy their ability to function. It's not as if Putin doesn't call the shots.
Saturday, March 27, 2010
The Daylight In-Between
Perhaps it is no secret that I consider the Netanyahu government to be the worst in Israel's history. But, recent events in Israel and Washington have moved the meter into a dangerous red zone - and for Israel.
The foreign policy gaffs of the current Israeli government, from an absurdly handled assassination in Dubai, insulting the Turkish ambassador, embarrassing the US Vice President during a visit to Israel, to continued refusal to even marginally stop seizing land for settlements, can only be described as self-destructive.
The meeting in Washington, by all accounts, did not go well. Netanyahu was basically treated to the same courtesy as the leader of Fiji. Possibly less. Did he miss the point? Does he care? Is his failure of judgement so great that he thinks that the stream of daylight now pouring through the gap will simply vanish?
His judgement, clearly from his first encounters with the Obama administration, is that with two wars and serious domestic issues, his government could withstand pressure from a preoccupied White House. Well, Mr Prime Minister, the preoccupation with domestic affairs has cleared one big hurdle with the passage of the insurance reform (incorrectly referred to as a health care bill)law. Iraq is still a problem, but hopefully will not be so very shortly. Afghanistan appears to be going well in the short term - at least enough to withdraw. Israeli government wiggle room is rapidly narrowing.
This Israeli government is sowing a toxic field in which the two state solution will be buried if for no other reason than by inserting religious zealots into potential Palestinian territory any chance of delimiting boundaries will be gone. The demographics in that situation are not favourable to Israel. To that extent, the current government is a security risk to Israel itself. Saying last week that Jews have been building in Jerusalem, its unrecognized capital, for 3,000 years invites some unfortunate historical recollections - none of which are good for Israel
In foreign policy, Israel is pushing away its strongest - and only - ally in the region. Turkey is waking up and Israel needs to read the history of the region. Turkey is the heavy-weight and the only nation able to face down a belligerent Iran, control Syria and balance an unstable Iraq. Refusing to listen to an economic, political and military power - indeed finding childish ways of irritating it - is not a viable long-term plan.
The Netanyahu government needs to take a deep breath and consider its actions to please its leadership and a conservative religious minority that cannot hope, historically, to win what it wants. Either that, or in the next election, the Netanyahu group must be removed from power. Israel's security depends on it.
The foreign policy gaffs of the current Israeli government, from an absurdly handled assassination in Dubai, insulting the Turkish ambassador, embarrassing the US Vice President during a visit to Israel, to continued refusal to even marginally stop seizing land for settlements, can only be described as self-destructive.
The meeting in Washington, by all accounts, did not go well. Netanyahu was basically treated to the same courtesy as the leader of Fiji. Possibly less. Did he miss the point? Does he care? Is his failure of judgement so great that he thinks that the stream of daylight now pouring through the gap will simply vanish?
His judgement, clearly from his first encounters with the Obama administration, is that with two wars and serious domestic issues, his government could withstand pressure from a preoccupied White House. Well, Mr Prime Minister, the preoccupation with domestic affairs has cleared one big hurdle with the passage of the insurance reform (incorrectly referred to as a health care bill)law. Iraq is still a problem, but hopefully will not be so very shortly. Afghanistan appears to be going well in the short term - at least enough to withdraw. Israeli government wiggle room is rapidly narrowing.
This Israeli government is sowing a toxic field in which the two state solution will be buried if for no other reason than by inserting religious zealots into potential Palestinian territory any chance of delimiting boundaries will be gone. The demographics in that situation are not favourable to Israel. To that extent, the current government is a security risk to Israel itself. Saying last week that Jews have been building in Jerusalem, its unrecognized capital, for 3,000 years invites some unfortunate historical recollections - none of which are good for Israel
In foreign policy, Israel is pushing away its strongest - and only - ally in the region. Turkey is waking up and Israel needs to read the history of the region. Turkey is the heavy-weight and the only nation able to face down a belligerent Iran, control Syria and balance an unstable Iraq. Refusing to listen to an economic, political and military power - indeed finding childish ways of irritating it - is not a viable long-term plan.
The Netanyahu government needs to take a deep breath and consider its actions to please its leadership and a conservative religious minority that cannot hope, historically, to win what it wants. Either that, or in the next election, the Netanyahu group must be removed from power. Israel's security depends on it.
Germany's Prejudice
Following up on the last post, it has now become extremely clear that while Merkel is in power in Germany there will be no movement on EU accession by Turkey.
The Chancellor has again reiterated her opposition to Turkish membership based on the prejudices of a broad group supporters who are unwilling to accept any non-Christian country into the club. Similar sentiments are prevalent in France and most strongly in Austria, although to be frank, the latter country doesn't really count for much.
What the Chancellor is attempting to ignore - so far successfully - are the provisions of the EU acquis regarding Turkish membership. This document - all 110,000 pages - does not contain the words "privileged partnership". Anywhere. In the words of an iconic New York Yankee baseball player - "You can look it up".
The misguided, prejudiced position of a country that has assumed control of the EU, if not its leadership, cannot be characterized any longer under the rubric of foreign policy choices. There are over 3 million Turks living in Germany. Germany originally "invited" many of their parents and grandparents to immigrate to perform the jobs Germans considered too menial for themselves. Over 4,000 German companies operate in Turkey and bilateral trade exceeds 20 million euro. There cannot be any other reason other than good, old fashioned bigotry to suddenly attempt to breach the terms of the acquis.
Merkel needs to rethink German opposition to Turkish membership. Her ally in this quest, President Sarkozy, is likely to be hammered in the next French election if the latest regional election results are any indication. Spain, England and Eastern Europe members do not oppose Turkish membership and are also likely to become increasingly wary of German control of the EU. The Tories in England may yet snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but if they win another crack will appear in the EU further endangering the viability of the euro. Merkel and her ever shrinking circle of friends may then find that Germany is again viewed with deep suspicion.
Germany needs to decide whether changing the rules toward the end of the game is good for overall perceptions of its potential honesty in other matters. Mitteleuropa is still a not so distant memory.
The Chancellor has again reiterated her opposition to Turkish membership based on the prejudices of a broad group supporters who are unwilling to accept any non-Christian country into the club. Similar sentiments are prevalent in France and most strongly in Austria, although to be frank, the latter country doesn't really count for much.
What the Chancellor is attempting to ignore - so far successfully - are the provisions of the EU acquis regarding Turkish membership. This document - all 110,000 pages - does not contain the words "privileged partnership". Anywhere. In the words of an iconic New York Yankee baseball player - "You can look it up".
The misguided, prejudiced position of a country that has assumed control of the EU, if not its leadership, cannot be characterized any longer under the rubric of foreign policy choices. There are over 3 million Turks living in Germany. Germany originally "invited" many of their parents and grandparents to immigrate to perform the jobs Germans considered too menial for themselves. Over 4,000 German companies operate in Turkey and bilateral trade exceeds 20 million euro. There cannot be any other reason other than good, old fashioned bigotry to suddenly attempt to breach the terms of the acquis.
Merkel needs to rethink German opposition to Turkish membership. Her ally in this quest, President Sarkozy, is likely to be hammered in the next French election if the latest regional election results are any indication. Spain, England and Eastern Europe members do not oppose Turkish membership and are also likely to become increasingly wary of German control of the EU. The Tories in England may yet snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but if they win another crack will appear in the EU further endangering the viability of the euro. Merkel and her ever shrinking circle of friends may then find that Germany is again viewed with deep suspicion.
Germany needs to decide whether changing the rules toward the end of the game is good for overall perceptions of its potential honesty in other matters. Mitteleuropa is still a not so distant memory.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Merkel Goes to Turkey
Andrea Merkel is off to Turkey and will, again, break the word of the EU regarding eventual membership for Turkey by offering, also yet again, a privileged partnership.
Turkey will not accept this latest offer; but, the issue is not really up to Germany. Is it any longer in Turkey's political and economic interest to join an organization which is increasingly run by Germany both politically and economically? I don't believe it is.
The current German government is largely in the driver's seat in the EU. It has said that it has no interest in bailing out Greece from its self-inflicted financial woes and has also stated, through its Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble that if Greece, or any other eurozone member, could not right their finances, they should be ejected from the eurozone. Although there is no mechanism to toss the financially challenged out of the zone, the attitude - so long suppressed - is telling. Does Turkey really want to be a part of an organization run by Germany? Does it want to be tied into a group where the high labour cost and low efficiency economies are dictated to by one power?
I believe what will happen is that the process will be so attenuated that the idea of Turkish membership eventually vaporizes. This is an opportunity for Turkey. It will allow Turkey to firmly establish an independent foreign policy and further strengthen its new found self-esteem. It is also a huge opportunity for the United States, if it acts carefully, to forge a very strong relationship with an economically strong, cosmopolitan and educated democratic Muslim country to balance a German dominated EU tied to Russia by energy and to counter Iranian foreign policy designs in the region.
Of course, changes in governments in France (likely) and Germany (possible, but not soon) could lead to a different dynamic. The continued denial of membership to Turkey will, in the end, be Europe's loss. It may also be Turkey's gain.
Turkey will not accept this latest offer; but, the issue is not really up to Germany. Is it any longer in Turkey's political and economic interest to join an organization which is increasingly run by Germany both politically and economically? I don't believe it is.
The current German government is largely in the driver's seat in the EU. It has said that it has no interest in bailing out Greece from its self-inflicted financial woes and has also stated, through its Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble that if Greece, or any other eurozone member, could not right their finances, they should be ejected from the eurozone. Although there is no mechanism to toss the financially challenged out of the zone, the attitude - so long suppressed - is telling. Does Turkey really want to be a part of an organization run by Germany? Does it want to be tied into a group where the high labour cost and low efficiency economies are dictated to by one power?
I believe what will happen is that the process will be so attenuated that the idea of Turkish membership eventually vaporizes. This is an opportunity for Turkey. It will allow Turkey to firmly establish an independent foreign policy and further strengthen its new found self-esteem. It is also a huge opportunity for the United States, if it acts carefully, to forge a very strong relationship with an economically strong, cosmopolitan and educated democratic Muslim country to balance a German dominated EU tied to Russia by energy and to counter Iranian foreign policy designs in the region.
Of course, changes in governments in France (likely) and Germany (possible, but not soon) could lead to a different dynamic. The continued denial of membership to Turkey will, in the end, be Europe's loss. It may also be Turkey's gain.
Armenia Offers Non-Aggression Pact
Armenian President Serge Sarkisian has offered a non-aggression pact to Azerbaijan in order to establish a basis for further negotiation to settle the Ngorno Kharabakh issue. İlham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, should accept the offer.
A non-aggression pact is essentially meaningless except for the optics. Azerbaijan is not going to war with Armenia over the NK for the simple reason that Russia, Turkey and Europe would not permit it. So, the optics are good for Azerbaijan since it loses nothing and the media would tout it.
Armenia's position that the NK should determine its own fate through a referendum is a nice idea except that it would be necessary to allow all the Azeris who fled back in - unlikely at the moment as that powerful nation of Glendale, California would erupt in anger and frustration at the prospect that a peaceful settlement, satisfactory to all parties would come a step closer.
Nevertheless, it is an interesting offer that Aliyev should not dismiss out of hand, meaningless or not. Perceptions often count more than facts.
A non-aggression pact is essentially meaningless except for the optics. Azerbaijan is not going to war with Armenia over the NK for the simple reason that Russia, Turkey and Europe would not permit it. So, the optics are good for Azerbaijan since it loses nothing and the media would tout it.
Armenia's position that the NK should determine its own fate through a referendum is a nice idea except that it would be necessary to allow all the Azeris who fled back in - unlikely at the moment as that powerful nation of Glendale, California would erupt in anger and frustration at the prospect that a peaceful settlement, satisfactory to all parties would come a step closer.
Nevertheless, it is an interesting offer that Aliyev should not dismiss out of hand, meaningless or not. Perceptions often count more than facts.
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